Showing posts with label capitalism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label capitalism. Show all posts

Friday 20 July 2018

Why Burberry Destroyed £30m of its Products - An Introduction to Artificial Scarcity

How companies artificially rig markets to work in their favour- and how it gets a lot darker than just burning handbags...

Burberry has recently caused quite a stir after a controversial business practice was recently revealed. News broke that the British high-end luxury fashion brand has incinerated as much as £28m of its own cosmetics and fashion products over the past year, to protect the brand and eradicate counterfeiting.

While these latest revelations have drawn attention to Burberry, this practice of destroying one's own stock is not by any means new in the fashion industry. H&M has a deal in Sweden to burn its own unwanted stock to produce energy. Slashed shoes were found disposed outside a Nike store in NYC. And Richemont, the group whose portfolio includes luxury watchmaker Cartier, has reportedly destroyed more than £400m of luxury watches over the past 2 years.

The most significant threat of these surplus products to a company like Burberry is not the aiding of counterfeiting, rather the potential effect the sale of such items on the grey market could have on the brand. The grey market, unlike the black market, is not necessarily illegal- rather it is a market which sells goods obtained unofficially. Some argue that popular retailers such as TK Maxx are examples of the grey market- obtaining genuine branded items, some of which are from unofficial channels, and selling them for less than the brand itself.

Burberry's concern is this: if their goods found their way to a shop like TK Maxx, and were sold for a fraction of their actual price, what would be the perceived value of the bags which it sells for full price? The appeal of a luxury brand is exclusivity; the grey market offers anything but this. What's more, it is highly unlikely that the original brand gets any of the grey market revenue at all.

Considering all this, Burberry's incineration of its own goods is an investment in the company's brand, protecting its goods from reaching the grey market and helping to maintain high prices. This is artificial scarcity.

Why is this scarcity artificial?

Well, the fact that the surplus goods existed shows that Burberry can produce than it is putting onto the market. Through artificially reducing supply (burning it), Burberry can keep demand, and thus prices, high.

To provide contrast, an example of genuine scarcity could be the recent CO2 shortage confronting many beverage manufacturers. The shortage of carbon dioxide has restricted the production of fizzy beverages, which, if prolonged, may force producers to raise prices.

The spread of Burberry's brash act in the news has brought practices that ensure artificial scarcity to light, but in reality, pretty much every business enforces some type of artificial scarcity. Few companies (perhaps, except Tesla) genuinely produce at their maximum capacity, whether to protect their brand as Burberry does, or to protect costs.

Disregarding the contemptible waste of material involved in some methods of creating it (think of how much leather Burberry burned), one could argue artificial scarcity is too substantial an issue. When it comes to luxury brands, for example, few people suffer from not being able to afford a £1000 handbag.

Where artificial scarcity does come into issue is in industries whose products we depend heavily upon. The pharmaceutical sector is an example; producers with monopoly power over certain drugs can in effect hold its users at ransom by restricting production and sending prices rocketing. Investigations have found this to be happening with medical products as widely used as stents, where some US firms were found to be exporting an increasing number of stents to India, but distributing fewer, despite demand increasing.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (known as OPEC) also leverage artificial scarcity to their benefit. Its members, which include Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and the UAE, are able to control global oil prices through co-ordinating their output. If it is decided that a rise in oil prices would benefit members, all members reduce their output of oil, and if an oil price cut is desired, they increase output. Such organisations are known as 'cartels'- illegal in most instances due to their lack of competition, but uncontrollable in the case of an organisation as influential as OPEC.

Artificial scarcity is always working in favour of businesses, rarely (if ever) working in favour of consumers. In the consumer world, it can cause massive waste, but little other genuine threat to consumers themselves.

However, when artificial scarcity is a tactic leveraged in potentially life-changing industries, such as pharmaceuticals and natural resources, it exposes capitalism at its most vicious- wealthy producers holding consumers depending on their product at ransom, and benefiting from their desperation.

Thursday 31 December 2015

Who Will Be The World's First Trillionaire?

We've all thought about it- will, at some point, an individual's wealth surpass $1,000,000,000,000?


Needless to say, the first trillionaire on Earth will be MASSIVELY wealthy. A trillion dollars means 1,000 x billion dollars- or a million x million dollars. If their cash was stacked in hypothetical $1000 bills, it would extend over 63 miles vertically. An 80 year old trillionaire will have earned, on average, more than $34 million every day of his life. So yeah, it's a massive amount of money (you can read more fascinating trillion dollar facts here).


But, it is such a massive figure that some are sceptical that a single individual worth over a trillion dollars will ever walk the face of the earth. The wealthiest man in the world right now, Bill Gates, would have to multiply his current net wealth around 14 times to reach such a trillion dollars.

Despite the daunting mass of such a figure, it is very reasonable to think that we may have a trillionaire within the next 100 years or so.


Rockefeller's net worth (in today's terms)
was over $350bn- over 4 times that of Bill Gates.
Let's look at the past. The first ever millionaire was John Jacob Astor, a 19th century fellow who profited massively off his monopoly of the fur trade, and later his ventures into real estate. Then came John Davison Rockefeller Sr., the world's first billionaire and on record the wealthiest man to ever have lived, with a wealth today that would be over 4 times that of Bill Gates. Rockefeller was an oil man- like Astor, a monopolist who at his peak controlled 90% of the oil in the USA.

So a common theme between these past juggernauts is monopoly- almost total domination, and complete control over their respective markets. This theme continues today (Bill Gates created the (ex?) monopolist Microsoft), and is very likely to continue when it comes to the first trillionaire. But what will he/she monopolise?

Astor created a monopoly of fur coats in a USA in its infancy of independence, Rockefeller capitalised on the oil boom of the late 19th and 20th centuries, and Gates played a key roll in bringing the personal computer to the mass market. These people did not become massively wealthy by following other businesses of the time, but by taking charge and carving out their own markets, and the first trillionaire will have to do this on an even larger scale. They will need to be a complete game-changer.

The trillionaire could produce key developments in the technology arena. Revolutionise key areas of our infrastructure- like transport (think autonomous technology), or education. But it's very difficult to speculate what particular area they will profit from- their vision will have to be such that they produce something we may not even think about right now.

Asteroids such as this have been estimated by some to be
home to raw materials worth up to $5.4 trillion.
An interesting proposition is that the first trillionaire will be the first to effectively capitalise on something we've always lived with, but been unable to grasp fully- space. In his 1997 book Mining the Sky, Professor of Planetary Science John Lewis makes the claim that "we can relieve Earth of its energy problem, make astronomical amounts of raw materials available, and raise the living standard of people worldwide" by effectively taking advantage of the wealth of materials that can be found in space, whether on planets or bodies like asteroids. Just like Rockefeller worked to capitalise on a growing but young oil industry in the US to revolutionise energy consumption, the first trillionaire could be the person who leads the revolution of our own energy consumption by venturing into space.

A far less thrilling but arguably more realistic prospect, however, is that the first trillionaire is just a current billionaire who becomes a trillionaire as his wealth accumulates and expands, thanks to investments or just ordinary inflation. The wealthiest individuals around the world are already becoming exponentially richer, and for people like Bill Gates it could just be a waiting game- albeit one with the constraint of lifespan.

Let's assume Gates lives until he's 100 (40 more years). From his current wealth of just under $80bn, he would require a 6.5% annual interest rate to become a trillionaire by his 100th year. So it is possible that he will become a trillionaire- but unlikely, considering recent US interest rates have barely been exceeding 1%.
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg-
could he be one of the first trillionaires?
However, keeping money in financial institutions could enable younger billionaires, the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, to become trillionaires by the time they reach old age- especially considering the extra time allowed for interest rates to increase. Again, assuming a life of 100 years, Zuckerberg would require a 4.9% rate for his $36bn wealth to grow to a trillion.

Gates and co. could make a faster journey to the top by investing all of his $80bn correctly- but again, for a man who plans to give most of his money to charity, this is unlikely to happen. Investing such a large proportion of their wealth would probably be an unlikely move for Gates' fellow billionaires to take.

So there are two scenarios- either a trillionaire rises fantastically from some groundbreaking innovation that they are able to quickly monopolise, or a trillionaire rises less glamourously thanks to favourable interest rates and/or long term investments.

The first scenario would indeed be a spectacular event, but dwelling on the second makes you realise that perhaps the first trillionaire will not be such an iconic figure. Inflation raises not just the nominal income of the wealthiest, but it raises everyone's incomes. That's why earning a 5-figure salary is not the big deal now that it was a century ago, and why earning a 6-figure salary in 2115 will probably not be as valued as earning it now in 2015. The first trillionaire could just arise from the wave of inflation that raises everyone's wealth on paper- $1,000,000,000,000, after all, is just a number, not a real wealth indicator.

So, at the end of the day, becoming a trillionaire on paper might not be as big as a deal as we think it is now.

Anyway, it could be argued that thousands of people have already become trillionaires- in a country called Zimbabwe, I've heard they even used to print bank notes in the trillions.


Monday 6 October 2014

Why Tesla Motors Could Be the Most Important Car Company in the World.

Tesla Motors founder Elon Musk- often dubbed 'the
real life Tony Stark'.
One of the hottest new companies to come out of the golden hills of Silicon Valley is not another computer-based company, but, for the first time, a car company. 
Tesla Motors, the brainchild of a founder of PayPal, Space X and numerous other ventures Elon Musk have set out to revolutionise the car industry.

Although it's not overly apparent at the moment, much of the conventional car industry today is broken. Yes, cars are being innovated, crammed with more technology in the shape of screens, cameras and whatnot, and they are becoming more comfortable and so on but fundamental environmental problems still exist (yes, despite the increasing MPGs we are seeing). 
First and most important is the issue of the environmental impact that cars today hold. In 2011 the number of cars worldwide surpassed 1 billion, with newly boosted economies such as China and India in particular seeing huge increases in car usage. And the growth is not expected to stop any time soon; in the same year, the OECD's International Transport Forum claimed we could see up to 2.5 billion cars on the roads by 2050.

Now there are two major environmental issues with such a large number of cars- firstly, the large majority of cars on the road (particularly in newer economic giants such as those in Asia) pollute huge amounts of harmful gases- mixtures of various hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and dioxide, which all contribute to a polluted air that with it carries increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer to humans, poor nutrition for plants and ominously it is a major cause of global warming, which, causing the melting of polar caps, could in future lead to huge natural disasters
Cars are certainly dangerous to the environment- according to the US Environmental Protection Agency, transportation (most of which is in the form of cars) contributes 27% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the USA.

Smog, one of the many unpleasant effects of pollution,
shrouds Paris.
Another key issues relies in the scarcity of the resources required to continue our dependency on automobiles. According to the World Bank, for every 1000 citizens of the USA there exists 786 cars in the country- when you consider the large chunk of people unable to drive, this makes for over a car per person, and the 300 million population of the US makes these statistics even worse. The US, while a prominent example, is not alone in this obsession with cars- the UK's figure lay at 516, still a large amount.
So we are so dependent on cars- but the large majority (over 95%) of cars sold in the US are conventional petrol/diesel affairs. Considering this, the seemingly endless growth of car ownership and the fact that BP claimed there to be only 53.3 years of oil left on the earth, it really does seem we can't afford to continue depending on these vehicles because one day in the near future, we will not be able to run them (one can state that, as has often been the case, new oil reserves will be found in the future, but can we really afford to rely on that anymore).

So, back to Tesla. Basically, they want to circumvent all these issues associated with conventional fossil fuel cars. So how do you do that? Make hybrid cars, of course.
But that's not enough; hybrid cars are hybrid, remember- a mixture of petrol/diesel and electric power. They still require these preciously damaging commodities to be used to work, and above a certain speed they still pollute.

The Tesla Model S, Musk's first major entry into the electric
car market.
So Tesla set its sights to popularise the fully electric car, with their first stab at the premium saloon market coming in the very easy on the eye Model S, and a forthcoming more affordable 'Model 3'. The aim is to bring electric cars (which require absolutely no fossil fuels to be inserted, nor burns any harmful gases) into the mainstream, but a certainly interesting move by Tesla has been that, unlike most companies, they seek not to monopolise this new industry by innovating internally and patenting endlessly to block out competitors. 
No, they are, spectacularly, doing quite the opposite: in a bold move earlier this June, Tesla opened up its collection of 249 patents to use by any competitor 'in good faith', something Elon Musk claimed to be part of the 'open source movement' with the intent of sparking genuine market development and competition in the bare area of electric cars.

In normal business terms, this is a ludicrous move- patents, after all, have been the focus of this mega conflict between two technology giants, Apple and Samsung. Conflict over patents cost these sides over a billion dollars- so why are Tesla just letting go of all of them?

It's a textbook example of what economist Umair Haque calls a development of 'market resilience' in his book The New Capitalist Manifesto. Tesla could have kept tight hold of the revolutionary patents they possessed, and with their incredibly 'cool' brand they could have dominated the electric car market for the next decade via their exclusive technologies. But no- Musk and co. opening up these patents has the effect of opening up the market to fair and vibrant competition. Tesla perhaps a year or two ago would have easily been crushed by huge competitors- but now it can stand on its two feet it wants to kick of the stabilisers and compete. 

BMW have already made their entrances into
Tesla's market with their i3 and i8 electric cars.
Opening up the patents shows a desire to see development in the market, and is actually a dangerous move for Tesla. BMW could tomorrow launch a Model S competitor in a fully electric 5-Series- the huge marketing and already existing prestige of the brand could possibly reduce Tesla to just a minor 
player in the market. Mercedes, Audi, Toyota, Ford, all these brands and more could do the same.

This is where the 'Resilience' mentioned by Haque comes into play; Tesla, by opening itself up to market competition, will have to fight to grow, fight via innovation, genuine development of technology, and so will its competitors if they want to grab a share of this growing market. Tesla won't have the security of a cocoon of patents- but neither will they have the temptation of laziness that comes with market security- just ask Microsoft about what complacency brought by monopoly did for them in the noughties (cough, Vista, cough).

Tesla opening up their patents was a bold move indeed, especially by a relatively new entrant into the automotive market. But it is a truly innovative, progressive move that will hopefully boost the automotive industry as a whole, and help us escape from the tyranny of conventional gas-guzzlers by providing a cleaner, affordable and most importantly more sustainable alternative.
It will be a long, hard battle for Musk and Co.- but we wish them the best of luck.
Long live Tesla. 

SOURCES (and recommended reads):
The Capitalist Manifesto by Umair Haque is a real eye opener to the next generation of corporation- the Googles, the Teslas, the Nikes and the Wal-Marts (yes, really, you'll have to read the book to find out why). It's definitely worth a read: http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-New-Capitalist-Manifesto-Disruptively/dp/1422158586

Space X, Elon Musk's latest venture into the stars: http://www.spacex.com/

Number of Cars in the World surpass 1 Billion: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/23/car-population_n_934291.html

We Could See 2.5 Billion Cars on the Road by 2050: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55943

Global Warming and Natural Disasters: 

Transport responsible for 27% of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: http://auto.howstuffworks.com/air-pollution-from-cars.htm

World Bank Global Car Ownership Stats: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3


Elon Musk Announcing Release of All Tesla Patents: http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you 

List of current 2014 Tesla Motors Patents (as of 5/10/14): http://stks.freshpatents.com/Tesla-Motors-Inc-nm1.php


Tesla Official Website: http://www.teslamotors.com

BMW Official Website: http://www.bmw.com